Local W4 market information for homeowners, Landlords & Investors.

Month: October 2016

12.6% of Chiswick People live in Shared Households

I had an interesting chat the other day with a Chiswick landlord. He said he had been chatting with an architect friend of his who said back in the mid 2000’s, the developments he was asked to draw were a balance of one and two bed properties, compared to today where the majority of the buildings he is designing are more towards two and sometimes three bedrooms. Now of course, this was all anecdotal but it made me think if similar things were happening in the Chiswick property market?

 

This is a really important point as I explained to this landlord, as knowing when and where the demand of tenants is going to come from in the coming decade is just as important as knowing the supply side of the buy to let equation, in relation to the number of properties built in Chiswick, Chiswick property prices, Chiswick yields and Chiswick rents.

 

In 2001, there were 84,000 households with a population of 212,300 in the Hounslow Council area. By 2011, that had grown to 94,900 households and a population of 254,000.

 

.. meaning, between 2001 and 2011, whilst the number of households in the Hounslow Council area grew by 12.99%, the population grew by 19.60%

 

Nothing surprising there then. But, as my readers will know, there is always a but! My analysis of the 2011 Census results, using the most recent in-depth data on household formation (eg ‘one person households’, ‘couples/ family households’ or ‘couple + other adults households and multi -adult households’), has displayed a sudden and unexpected break with the trends of the whole of the 20th Century. There has been a seismic change in household formation in Chiswick between 2001 and 2011.

Between 2001 and 2011, the population of Chiswick grew, as did the number of Chiswick properties (because of new home building). However, the growth rate of new properties built in Chiswick was much lower than expected though, but still the population has grown by what was expected, meaning the average household size was larger than anticipated in Chiswick. In fact, average household size (ie the number of people in each property) in 2011 was almost exactly the same as in 2001, the first time for at least 100 years it had not fallen between censuses. (Since 1911, household size has decreased by around 20% every decade).

Looking at figures specifically for Chiswick (W4) itself,

  • One person households – 35.7%
  • Couples/family households – 51.7%
  • Couple + other adults/multi-adult households – 12.6%

This decline was reflected in large scale shifts in the mix of household types. In particular, there were far more “couple + other adults households and multi -adult households” than expected (12.6% is quite a lot of households). It can be put down to two things; increased international migration and changes to household formation. A particularly important reason for the difference can probably be attributed to the evidence that migrants initially form fewer households (ie two couples share one property) than those who have lived in the UK all their lives. Also, changes to household formation patterns amongst the rest of the population, including adult children living longer with their parents and more young adults living in shared accommodation (as can be seen in the growth of HMO properties (Homes of Multiple Occupation).

 

So, what does all this mean for Chiswick Homeowners and Landlords? Quite a lot in fact. There has been a subtle shift to slightly larger households in the last decade, meaning smart landlords might be tempted to buy slightly larger properties to rent out – again good news for homeowners who will get top dollar for their home as they sell on. But now with Brexit, household formation might swing the other way in the next decade? Who knows? Watch this space!

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What is really happening in the Chiswick Property Market?

Well its been a few months since Brexit and as we settle into the Autumn with Great British Bake Off, Strictly and the Football season … the newspapers are returning to their mixed messages of good news, bad news and indifferent news about the Brit’s favourite subject after the weather … the property market.

The thing is the UK does not have one housing market. Instead, it is a patchwork of mini property markets all performing in a different way. At one end of scale is Kensington and Chelsea, which has seen average prices drop in the last twelve months by 6.2% whilst in the London region as a whole, house prices are 12.6% higher. But what about Chiswick?

Property prices in Chiswick are 11.7% higher than a year ago

and 0.3% lower than last month.

So what does this mean for Chiswick landlords and homeowners? Not that much unless you are buying or selling in reality. Most sellers are buyers anyway, so if the one you are buying has gone down, yours has gone down.  Everything is relative and what I would say is, if you look hard enough, there are even in this market, there are still some bargains to be had in Chiswick.

However, the most important question you should be asking though is not only is what happening to property prices, but exactly which price band is selling? I like to keep an eye on the property market in Chiswick on a daily basis because it enables me to give the best advice and opinion on what (or not) to buy in Chiswick.

If you look at Chiswick and split the property market into four equalled sized price bands. Each price band would have around 25% of the property in Chiswick, from the lowest in value band (the bottom 25%) all the way through to the highest 25% band (in terms of value).

  • Nil to £550 144 properties for sale and 58 sold (stc) i.e. 28% sold
  • £550 to £800 156 properties for sale and 65 sold (stc) i.e. 29% sold
  • £800 to £1.5m 147 properties for sale and 58 sold (stc) i.e. 28% sold
  • £1.5m + 142 properties for sale and 19 sold (stc) i.e. 11% sold

Fascinating don’t you think that it is the lower to middle Chiswick market that is doing the best?

The next nine months’ activity will be crucial in understanding which way the market will go this year after Brexit … but, Brexit or no Brexit, people will always need a roof over their head and that is why the property market has ridden the storms of oil crisis’ in the 1970’s, the 1980’s depression, Black Monday in the 1990’s, and latterly the credit crunch together with the various house price crashes of 1973, 1987 and 2008.

And why? Because of Britain’s chronic lack of housing will prop up house prices and prevent a post spike crash. … there is always a silver lining when it comes to the property market!

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